Bulletins
The Critical Events Monitoring System (CEMS) Bulletins provide a brief and actionable overview of pressing issues in conflict-stricken areas based on the real-time data collected via SMS and two-way radio that are recorded in Climate Conflict Action’s database.
Deepening political polarisation in the BARMM
26 August 2026 CEMS
The ambush of Bangsamoro Interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua’s convoy on 15 August in Brgy. Bitu, Datu Odin Sinsuat exposes the deepening polarisation within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). It comes at a particularly critical period of the Bangsamoro political settlement and raises serious questions about the stability of the region, just a few weeks before the first Parliamentary election will be held.
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Resurgence of clan feuds risks further violence ahead of elections
14 August 2026 CEMS
The first two weeks of the campaign period for the first Bangsamoro Parliamentary Election (BPE) saw two major recurring clan feuds in the Special Geographic Areas (SGA) and Maguindanao del Sur. The involvement of politico-military actors in these strings of violence reflects the complex dynamics that have allowed these conflicts to persist over time, as well as heighten the risks that these feuds could intersect with the electoral process and pose significant challenges to the polls.
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Safeguard the Bangsamoro Vote: A critical period to transcend violence in the region
31 July 2026 CEMS
As the Bangsamoro enters a critical election period, Boto Mo Bangsamoro! expands its monitoring efforts to provide timely, verified, and community-based reports on conflict incidents and emerging security concerns across the region. Our latest brief examines the security landscape as the elections seasons of the Bangsamoro Parliamentary Election and the Barangay and SK elections will converge, bringing increased security risk in the region. Compounding these concerns is the onset of the rainy season, which could disrupt election operations in areas vulnerable to flooding.
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Excitement and trepidation like no other in the Bangsamoro region
01 June 2026 CEMS
The Bangsamoro region shall claim its final and definite seal of political legitimacy as it heads towards an elected rather than an appointed set of leaders after the parliamentary polls scheduled for the third quarter of 2026.
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A Surge in Vertical Violence Shames the BARMM and Uncovers the Breakdown of the CAB Normalization Process
31 March 2026 CEMS
A surge in ambush attacks and revenge killings targeting State security forces blows the whistle on a new round of vertical violence and its steep rise in the first quarter of the new year. Worse, the causal root of violence not only uncovers the combined onslaught of violent extremism and horizontal revenge killings but also the near collapse of the post-conflict normalization process and the humiliation and shaming of its authors and advocates.
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Violent strings in the 2025 elections and the new Bangsamoro politico
17 June 2025 CEMS
The 2025 mid-term election in the Bangsamoro region saw conflict behave as it mostly did in the past: it drew from a deadly mix of communal violence and horizontal attacks between and among political rivals, warring clans, and criminal groups, and merged these with limited yet significant vertical attacks and counterattacks between non-state armed groups and the police, military, and paramilitary forces.
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POLLS and PERILS: Fault lines and flood lines are rising as new perils overtake the polls
22 May 2025 CEMS
The recent midterm elections in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region brought a disturbing wave of violence, intimidation, and militarization, particularly in conflict-prone areas like the Maguindanao provinces and Lanao del Sur. Communities bravely turned out to vote, yet the fragile peace that followed has already been shaken yet again, this time by climate-related disaster.
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NO SAFE VOTE: Gunfire, Fear, and Militarization Threaten the 2025 Polls in BARMM
10 May 2025 CEMS
In this first release, Climate Conflict Action (CCAA) launches Boto Bangsamoro, a dedicated election monitoring initiative focused on capturing the dynamics of violence and conflict surrounding the 2025 midterm elections in the Bangsamoro region. The platform offers real-time, community-based reporting and independent analysis of tensions on the ground—contributing a distinct, conflict-focused lens to wider election monitoring efforts. The Bangsamoro people deserve an election defined by their will—not shaped by fear, coercion, or violence.
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Flooding, fighting affect thousands in BARMM
15 October 2024 CEMS
The past two months were devastating for the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), with hundreds of thousands displaced by heavy rains and thunderstorms. Low-lying areas and those near rivers and tributaries were flooded. Coupled with strong winds, the torrent destroyed crops and infrastructure in Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao del Norte, Maguindanao del Sur, and Basilan. These were areas that had just emerged from months of drought due to El Niño.
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Mounting displacement in the Bangsamoro
11 July 2024 CEMS
The displacement of thousands due to clan feuding, extremist violence, and random shooting incidents characterized the month of May 2024 in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Violence continued to disrupt lives in the conflict to peace transition, even as the BARMM populace set their sights on the first Bangsamoro parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2025.
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