Bulletins

The Critical Events Monitoring System (CEMS) Bulletins provide a brief and actionable overview of pressing issues in conflict-stricken areas based on the real-time data collected via SMS and two-way radio that are recorded in CCAA’s database.

These regular bulletin announcements focus on time-sensitive, critical, and emerging conflicts such as the elections, pandemic-related lockdown measures, looming threats, policy changes, and more. These are meant to inform relevant stakeholders such as government agencies and media outlets to respond effectively and mitigate conflict escalation.

Scorching heat and surging
violence leave trails of
death and displacement in
mainland Mindanao

Scorching heat and surging violence leave trails of death and displacement in mainland Mindanao

27 May 2024 CEMS

Scorching heat and a surge in violence since the start of the year has triggered an unprecedented rise in deaths and displacement in the Bangsamoro region as it heads towards regional elections in 2025. A state of calamity has been declared as temperatures rise of around 40 degrees Celsius across the region, compounding tensions from intensifying horizontal conflict.

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Peaceful Plebiscite Beckons Hope for New Citizens of the BARMM

Peaceful Plebiscite Beckons Hope for New Citizens of the BARMM

13 April 2024 CEMS

A quiet and peaceful exercise in democracy during the plebiscite for local statehood in the Bangsamoro’s special geographic areas (SGA) stood in sharp contrast with the bloody and violent elections of 2023.

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No respite in violence in the Bangsamoro (January 2024)

No respite in violence in the Bangsamoro (January 2024)

31 January 2024 CEMS

There has been no respite in violence in the Bangsamoro following the bloodiest elections recorded in the last decade during the October 2023 barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan elections. Extremist violence and violent clan feuds would join election-related conflict as bombings, firefights, and targeted killings and ambushes escalate.

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Violence reigns in mainland Bangsamoro elections (Post-election brief, October 2023)

Violence reigns in mainland Bangsamoro elections (Post-election brief, October 2023)

31 October 2023 CEMS

Conflict data shows that the 2023 Barangay and SK elections turned out to be the bloodiest election in the Bangsamoro region in the past decade, with incidents of violence spread out across the mainland.

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Dissatisfaction and insecurity fuels polarization and violence (Pre-election brief, October 2023)

Dissatisfaction and insecurity fuels polarization and violence (Pre-election brief, October 2023)

05 October 2023 CEMS

Mounting violence from horizontal conflict as the country heads towards village-level polls in October 2023 has placed local government and national security officials on edge.

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Internal Ruptures within the Bangsamoro (February 2022)

Internal Ruptures within the Bangsamoro (February 2022)

17 February 2022 CEMS

The run-up to the 2022 elections has seen a remarkable escalation in violence between and among actors least expected to be the source of uncertainty, instability, and crisis in a region transitioning from conflict to peace. The rupture is occurring within the ranks of armed groups that have entered into peace agreements with the government but not with their rivals.

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The lay of the land: Viral violence and the threat of a wider war (April & May 2020)

The lay of the land: Viral violence and the threat of a wider war (April & May 2020)

24 June 2020 CEMS

As Ramadhan ended and the government eased its lockdown measures, violent conflict has unprecedentedly surged in the Bangsamoro. These reveal the changes in the balance of economic and political power between political groups and alliances at various levels, as well as the broader shift in the risks and threats that newly emerging violent actors bring.

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Special CEMS Bulletin on COVID-19 and Conflict (1 February – 17 April 2020)

Special CEMS Bulletin on COVID-19 and Conflict (1 February – 17 April 2020)

27 April 2020 CEMS

Three sources of fragility have been mainstays in the Bangsamoro prior to the COVID-19 pandemic — 1) the continued presence of rival armed groups, 2) persistence of rival systems of property rights, 3) presence of shadow and informal markets. This bulletin tackles what can be done to ensure that the pandemic response will not exacerbate existing conflict dynamics.

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Inauspicious start to the year (January 2020)

Inauspicious start to the year (January 2020)

22 April 2020 CEMS

As martial law ended at the close of 2019, the national government said Proclamation No. 55, which declared a state of national emergency, remains in effect. However, reports indicated that violence had persisted in January. Amidst all of this, local government officials sought to preserve the order by continuing curfews and banning the carrying of firearms in public.

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Martial law gains diminishing (October-December 2019)

Martial law gains diminishing (October-December 2019)

29 January 2020 CEMS

Martial law declared at the onset of the Marawi Seige ushered in a period of relative peace in Muslim Mindanao as conflict incidents dropped in 2018 vs the previous year. However, by the last quarter of 2019, conflict-stricken areas have slipped back into violence as per Early Response Network reports.

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A worrying turn of events in Lanao del Sur (September 2019)

A worrying turn of events in Lanao del Sur (September 2019)

18 November 2019 CEMS

Reports filed by Early Response Network members in Lanao del Sur in previous months warned of the Maute-ISIS’s regrouping, pointed out sightings of members in Marawi City, and recounted clashes between the military and Maute-ISIS fighters. Although conflict incidents have dropped in the previous months, they have slowly been picking up.

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Bangsamoro confronts NPA, ISIS, and weather threats (July & August 2019)

Bangsamoro confronts NPA, ISIS, and weather threats (July & August 2019)

10 October 2019 CEMS

This bulletin for July and August was pieced together using around 300 reports from Early Response Network (ERN) members based in Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao. Reports included the adverse effect of the downpour of rain, military-NPA clashes, and the looming threat of ISIS.

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No honeymoon period for Bangsamoro’s newly elected leaders (June 2019)

No honeymoon period for Bangsamoro’s newly elected leaders (June 2019)

31 July 2019 CEMS

This June, the Bangsamoro saw new officials preparing to replace incumbent, losing officials, while re-electionists set new priorities and consolidated loyalties. Amid the comings and goings, the challenges continue with around 170 Early Response Network (ERN) reports in Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao indicating a fragile peace and order situation.

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CEMS Bulletin – 24 June 2019

CEMS Bulletin – 24 June 2019

24 June 2019 CEMS

The weather is as hot as the political rivalries that are heating up with the campaign season for local posts got underway. These formed the backdrop for tensions that simmered and, in several instances, boiled over to claim lives and destroy properties in the Bangsamoro and surrounding areas.

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Heightened tensions and conflicts as dry season and campaign period set in (April 2019)

Heightened tensions and conflicts as dry season and campaign period set in (April 2019)

24 June 2019 CEMS

The weather is as hot as the political rivalries that are heating up with the campaign season for local posts got underway. These formed the backdrop for tensions that simmered and, in several instances, boiled over to claim lives and destroy properties in the Bangsamoro and surrounding areas.

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Political rivalries unleash cycle of retribution (May 2019)

Political rivalries unleash cycle of retribution (May 2019)

24 June 2019 CEMS

As Muslim Filipinos observed the holy month of Ramadhan and Marawi commemorated the second anniversary of the war that broke out in the Islamic city on 23 May 2017, the threat of violent extremism loomed. And despite the end of the May 13 polls, the situation remains tense as political rivalries ignited longstanding conflicts or sparked new feuds.

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CEMS Bulletin – 22 May 2019

CEMS Bulletin – 22 May 2019

22 May 2019 CEMS

Despite the Palace’s assessment that the May 13 polls was “generally peaceful”, a total of 108 Early Response Network reports on election-related conflict incidents say otherwise. Among the reports were heightened tensions among rivals, explosives set off to sow fear among voters and poll workers, and incidents of gunfights and fistfights.

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Fraud and Violence: Mainstays of Bangsamoro Electoral Politics (Postelection)

Fraud and Violence: Mainstays of Bangsamoro Electoral Politics (Postelection)

22 May 2019 CEMS

Despite the Palace’s assessment that the May 13 polls was “generally peaceful”, a total of 108 Early Response Network reports on election-related conflict incidents say otherwise. Among the reports were heightened tensions among rivals, explosives set off to sow fear among voters and poll workers, and incidents of gunfights and fistfights.

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CEMS Bulletin – 12 May 2019

CEMS Bulletin – 12 May 2019

12 May 2019 CEMS

With the Commission on Elections declaring the whole of Mindanao as a “red” election hotspot, Comelec has been given the power to put an area under its control and direct the augmentation of the police and armed forces. This is to mitigate conflict incidents that loom the upcoming elections.

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Propaganda, vote-buying, and intimidation amid the election campaign (Preelection)

Propaganda, vote-buying, and intimidation amid the election campaign (Preelection)

12 May 2019 CEMS

With the Commission on Elections declaring the whole of Mindanao as a “red” election hotspot, Comelec has been given the power to put an area under its control and direct the augmentation of the police and armed forces. This is to mitigate conflict incidents that loom the upcoming elections.

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