Bulletins
The Critical Events Monitoring System (CEMS) Bulletins provide a brief and actionable overview of pressing issues in conflict-stricken areas based on the real-time data collected via SMS and two-way radio that are recorded in Climate Conflict Action’s database.
Internal Ruptures within the Bangsamoro (February 2022)
17 February 2022 CEMS
The run-up to the 2022 elections has seen a remarkable escalation in violence between and among actors least expected to be the source of uncertainty, instability, and crisis in a region transitioning from conflict to peace. The rupture is occurring within the ranks of armed groups that have entered into peace agreements with the government but not with their rivals.
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The lay of the land: Viral violence and the threat of a wider war (April & May 2020)
24 June 2020 CEMS
As Ramadhan ended and the government eased its lockdown measures, violent conflict has unprecedentedly surged in the Bangsamoro. These reveal the changes in the balance of economic and political power between political groups and alliances at various levels, as well as the broader shift in the risks and threats that newly emerging violent actors bring.
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Special CEMS Bulletin on COVID-19 and Conflict (1 February – 17 April 2020)
27 April 2020 CEMS
Three sources of fragility have been mainstays in the Bangsamoro prior to the COVID-19 pandemic — 1) the continued presence of rival armed groups, 2) persistence of rival systems of property rights, 3) presence of shadow and informal markets. This bulletin tackles what can be done to ensure that the pandemic response will not exacerbate existing conflict dynamics.
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Inauspicious start to the year (January 2020)
22 April 2020 CEMS
As martial law ended at the close of 2019, the national government said Proclamation No. 55, which declared a state of national emergency, remains in effect. However, reports indicated that violence had persisted in January. Amidst all of this, local government officials sought to preserve the order by continuing curfews and banning the carrying of firearms in public.
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Martial law gains diminishing (October-December 2019)
29 January 2020 CEMS
Martial law declared at the onset of the Marawi Seige ushered in a period of relative peace in Muslim Mindanao as conflict incidents dropped in 2018 vs the previous year. However, by the last quarter of 2019, conflict-stricken areas have slipped back into violence as per Early Response Network reports.
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A worrying turn of events in Lanao del Sur (September 2019)
18 November 2019 CEMS
Reports filed by Early Response Network members in Lanao del Sur in previous months warned of the Maute-ISIS’s regrouping, pointed out sightings of members in Marawi City, and recounted clashes between the military and Maute-ISIS fighters. Although conflict incidents have dropped in the previous months, they have slowly been picking up.
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Bangsamoro confronts NPA, ISIS, and weather threats (July & August 2019)
10 October 2019 CEMS
This bulletin for July and August was pieced together using around 300 reports from Early Response Network (ERN) members based in Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao. Reports included the adverse effect of the downpour of rain, military-NPA clashes, and the looming threat of ISIS.
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No honeymoon period for Bangsamoro’s newly elected leaders (June 2019)
31 July 2019 CEMS
This June, the Bangsamoro saw new officials preparing to replace incumbent, losing officials, while re-electionists set new priorities and consolidated loyalties. Amid the comings and goings, the challenges continue with around 170 Early Response Network (ERN) reports in Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao indicating a fragile peace and order situation.
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CEMS Bulletin – 24 June 2019
24 June 2019 CEMS
The weather is as hot as the political rivalries that are heating up with the campaign season for local posts got underway. These formed the backdrop for tensions that simmered and, in several instances, boiled over to claim lives and destroy properties in the Bangsamoro and surrounding areas.
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Heightened tensions and conflicts as dry season and campaign period set in (April 2019)
24 June 2019 CEMS
The weather is as hot as the political rivalries that are heating up with the campaign season for local posts got underway. These formed the backdrop for tensions that simmered and, in several instances, boiled over to claim lives and destroy properties in the Bangsamoro and surrounding areas.
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