Conflict strings are episodes of violence arising from a discrete incident with singular or multiple causes. This paper argues that violent incidents cannot be examined as discrete events isolated from other causes and related events, which enable conflict to change shape and endure.
This thematic paper introduces a Violence Intensity Index and its application in the five provinces of Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. The overarching objective is to establish an evaluative tool that can be used to improve the targeting mechanisms of government agencies and nongovernmental organizations, directly or indirectly, involved in development and conflict management in Muslim Mindanao.
Conflict incidents and deaths declined by 11% and 17%, respectively, from the prior quarter, in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, including the cities of Isabela and Cotabato. However, there was more violence stemming from political and governance issues during this period as the Armed Forces of the Philippines launched attacks against the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters.
Unlike in the third quarter of 2012 and 2013, the number of conflict incidents declined quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2014, especially in the island provinces of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. July, August and September are agricultural lean months, and conflicts normally spike during this period.
Conflict incidents rose by nearly a tenth in the second quarter of 2014, the sixth consecutive increase in conflict incidence since the last quarter of 2012. But conflict deaths in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, including the cities of Isabela and Cotabato, fell by about a third due to less deaths attributed to political causes.
In a quarter that saw the historic signing of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the challenge of bringing sustainable peace to the Bangsamoro areas was highlighted by an increase in violent conflict in the provinces comprising the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, including the cities of Isabela and Cotabato.