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The Conflict Alert 2020 report presents analysis on conflict dynamics and trends from 2011 to 2019 in the Bangsamoro, highlighting the rise of violence in pockets and corridors of the region within a picture of continued overall decline of violent conflict across provinces. The report tackles the high incidence of identity, resource, and political violence
The Conflict Alert 2019 highlights the decline of violent conflict incidents in Muslim Mindanao after the Marawi war and amidst continuing extremist violence events, the impact of the State’s continued implementation of martial law in the region, and its implications especially on the strengthening of the Bangsamoro sub-state. WATCH the video highlights of the Conflict
The year 2017 was a turning point in the magnitude of violent conflict in the ARMM, amplified by the astonishing increase in conflict deaths due to the war in Marawi City and other places in Mindanao.
The ARMM saw an explosion of violence in 2016 as the Duterte government declared a war on illegal drugs and guns while a new threat emerged in the form of violent extremism.
Violent conflict surged to unprecedented levels in Muslim Mindanao in 2016 as the Duterte government launched a war on illegal drugs and guns and newly emerging violence from extremist groups escalated.
Violent conflict incidents in the Davao Region (excluding Davao City) outnumbered those in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) by four to one.
Data for 2011-2013 showed that conflict incidents were higher in the mainland provinces than in the island provinces of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.
As Ramadhan ended and the government eased its lockdown measures, violent conflict continued to surge in the Bangsamoro. Among the critical events monitored in the region were the expulsion of indigenous peoples (IP) from their ancestral lands; clashes between rebel groups and between factions of these rebel groups; the murder of a local government executive
Three sources of fragility have been the mainstays in the Bangsamoro prior to the current COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly shape and are shaped by the conflict to peace transition and will determine the stability and development trajectory of the region. First, the continued presence of rival armed groups as evidenced in the violence caused by
As martial law ended at the close of 2019, the national government said Proclamation No. 55, which declared a state of national emergency, remains in effect. However, it’s unclear what it can do against the resurgence of violence in Muslim Mindanao that had been observed even before martial law lifted. Reports by Early Response Network
Martial law, first declared in May 2017 at the start of the Marawi Siege, ushered in a period of relative peace in the Muslim Mindanao provinces. Conflict incidents and deaths dropped in 2018 from the previous year.[1] By the last quarter of 2019, however, Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur had slid back into violence, as
Military shelling of an ISIS camp roused Piagapo before sunrise while the killing of a sultan primed Malabang for the resumption of a clan feud. They took place kilometers and days apart, with no seeming connection, except they marked an escalation in violence in war-weary Lanao del Sur. These alarming developments did not happen out
The Bangsamoro confronted a growing insurgency problem, just as the rains, which provided relief from the heat, turned into a deluge that brought misery, particularly to families displaced by the 2017 Marawi war and still living in temporary shelters. In the backdrop, winners of the May polls began their terms, eager to deliver on election
Transitions are never easy, particularly if they affect the well-being of thousands of people. In the Bangsamoro, the month of June saw officials who won new terms after the previous month’s election prepare to assume their posts and officials who lost prepare to vacate their offices, reluctantly or not. Meanwhile, those who won second or
  The rains in May provided relief from the heat but, in pockets of the Bangsamoro, the situation remained tense after the 13 May polls as political rivalries ignited longstanding conflicts or sparked new feuds. The belief the vote was rigged in certain localities also portended disputes that would take long to settle. Meanwhile, as
April saw temperatures soar as the weather warmed and political rivalries heat up as the campaign for local posts got underway. These formed the backdrop for tensions that simmered and, in several instances, boiled over to claim lives and destroy properties in the Bangsamoro and surrounding areas. That month, a total of 93 reports were
“Generally peaceful” was the Palace’s assessment of the 13 May polls for national and local posts.1 Nothing could be further from the truth, especially where Muslim Mindanao was concerned. A total of 108 reports on election-related incidents were received on 13 May by International Alert Philippines’s Critical Events Monitoring System, sent in by Early Response Network
In a resolution on March 19, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) declared the whole of Mindanao as a ‘red’ election hotspot, judging from violence in the past two elections, and threats posed by armed groups such as the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, the Abu Sayyaf Group, the New People’s Army as well as rogue members
The January 21 plebiscite to ratify the Bangsamoro Organic Law will certainly rank as one of the most peaceful political exercises in recent Bangsamoro history. There were many reports of violence but none approximating the magnitude or body count in previous political competitions. Many observers claim that a plebiscite normally induces lower levels of violence
The scorching summer and the heated elections formed the backdrop for tensions that simmered and, in several instances, boiled over in the Bangsamoro and surrounding areas in April. Our CEMS received 93 reports excluding election-related incidents, which were covered by an earlier bulletin.
CEMS captured 144 real-time reports of election-related tensions and violence from 11-13 May in the Bangsamoro. These incidents were characterized by fistfights and the use of explosive devices, rather than the sort of gun battles that were a staple of previous electoral exercises.
The a run-up to the 2019 Philippine election was characterized by intense political rivalries that saw candidates and their supporters engage in mudslinging, vote buying, intimidation and threats, harassment, physical fights, and violence with the use of firearms.
The government responded to the growing COVID-19 crisis in early 2020 with a series of lockdowns with varying rules and coverage. In the Bangsamoro, the government at various levels enforced the lockdowns through curfews, checkpoints, roving patrols, and quarantine or travel passes. These were similar to the measures used to enforce martial law in Mindanao
The proposed Anti-Terrorism Law views the problem of terrorism purely through a security lens. International Alert is not against enacting a law that would eradicate terrorism. Our decades-long peacebuilding work, however, has shown that addressing the root causes of violence require a comprehensive approach that involves addressing conflict drivers and building communities resilient to the
Conflict strings are episodes of violence arising from a discrete incident with singular or multiple causes. This paper argues that violent incidents cannot be examined as discrete events isolated from other causes and related events, which enable conflict to change shape and endure.
This thematic paper introduces a Violence Intensity Index and its application in the five provinces of Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. The overarching objective is to establish an evaluative tool that can be used to improve the targeting mechanisms of government agencies and nongovernmental organizations, directly or indirectly, involved in development and conflict management in Muslim Mindanao.

OUT OF THE SHADOWS:
Violent Conflict and the Real Economy of Mindanao

Informal and unregulated economic activities remain an important feature of Mindanao's economy and are explored in this book that won the 36th National Book Awards for Social Science. This study, which represents the first attempt to incorporate the informal economy into the broader analysis of the region, argues that one cannot comprehend Mindanao's political and economic challenges, let alone address them, unless these shadow economies are scrutinized further.

  • Print Length

    367 pages

  • Publisher

    Ateneo De Manila
    University Press

  • Author

    Francisco J. Lara Jr.
    and Steven Schoofs

  • Language

    English

Where to buy:

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  The year 2017 was a turning point in the magnitude of violent conflict in the Southern Philippines, amplified by the astonishing increase in conflict deaths due to the war in Marawi City and other places in Mindanao. Fewer incidents produced more deaths compared to previous years. Since 2013, our conflict monitoring system in the
We have broken down our 2017 report “Guns, Drugs, and Extremism: Bangsamoro’s New Wars” into this infographic pack to make it easier for you to share information to your networks, invigorate discussions and deepen understanding about conflict in the Bangsamoro, and encourage effective context-based actions to forge peace in the region. Click on the link
Graphical presentation of 2011-2015 dataset covering the ARMM and Davao Region.

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