A worrying turn of events in Lanao del Sur (September 2019)




Cutting strings of conflict Understanding how conflicts escalate provides a way to interrupt this process. The concept of conflict strings sees conflicts as multiplying from one episode to other episodes through modes such as revenge killings, as what happens during clan feuding.[12] The first episode may be due to a single cause or multiple causes, which can touch off other causes as the conflict worsens and spreads. Conflict actors can morph from victim to offender or vice versa. The type of conflict can shift from horizontal to vertical or vice versa. A rido lends itself well to analysis using conflict strings. In the Aksara Balindong case, the gunman was believed to be related to the 2010 victims. Aksara’s stature within the family could prompt retaliation from his clan. In the case of land claimed by MILF members, the conflict with landowners unwilling to part with their properties could blow up into violent conflict such as rido if the situation could not be defused. The conflict could turn from horizontal, or between individuals, to vertical, or between rebels and the State, if the government’s troops get involved. Violent extremism has intersected with identity conflicts such as rido, shadow activities such as the illicit drug trade, and resource conflicts such as contestation over land. The Maute Group had been known to instrumentalize clan conflicts to gain alliances and firepower, and in the process, gained entry to illegal activities and cornered resources.[13] Applying the concept of conflict strings is important to see violent incidents not as discrete incidents but part of (or can be part of) a string of incidents. It is equally important to understand the cause or causes of the violence and know who are involved to be able to craft the appropriate responses that can interrupt or cut the strings. Succeeding bulletins will highlight conflict strings.
[1] ERN members based in Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao provide the reports for the Critical Events Monitoring System. These reports are transmitted through SMS, stored in a database, and processed for deployment of context-specific responses by key stakeholders on the ground. Around 200 ERN reports in September were used for the writing this bulletin. ERN members are autonomous individuals and members of groups with grassroots reach who monitor disputes and harness traditional, formal, and hybrid institutions and arrangements to defuse or resolve violent conflicts. Among them are women and youth leaders. [2] F. J. Lara Jr., Insurgents, Clans, and States: Political Legitimacy and Resurgent Conflict in Muslim Mindanao, Philippines, Quezon City: Ateneo de Manila University Press, 2014, page 89. [3] International Alert Philippines, Conflict Alert 2019: War Makes States, Quezon City: International Alert Philippines, 2019, page 68, https://conflictalert.info/publication/war-makes-states/ [4] M. I. Matuan, Inventory of Existing Rido in Lanao del Sur (1994-2004), in W.M. Torres III (ed.), Rido: Clan Feuding and Clan Conflict in Mindanao, Makati City: The Asia Foundation, 2007, page 79. [5] ABS-CBN News, DNA test confirms death of Marawi Siege leader Abu Dar, https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/14/19/dna-test-confirms-death-of-marawi-siege-leader-abu-dar (accessed 21 October 2019). [6] C. Yabes, Factors and forces that led to the Marawi debacle, https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/10/20/19/factors-and-forces-that-led-to-the-marawi-debacle [7] CNN Philippines, 37 members of Maute, Jemaah Islamiyah, killed in Lanao clashes – military, https://cnnphilippines.com/regional/2017/04/25/maute-jemaah-islamiyah-killed-lanao-clashes.html (accessed 21 October 2019). [8] United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Philippines: Situation Report, 29 July 2019, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Situation%20Report%20-%20Philippines%20-%2029%20Jul%202019.pdf, page 6, accessed 21 October 2019. [9] Executive Order No. 79, “Implementing the Annex on Normalization under the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro,” https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/downloads/2019/04apr/20190524-EO-79-RRD.pdf (accessed 21 October 2019). The six camps are Bilal, Omar ibn al-Khattab, Rajamuda, Busrah Somiorang, Badre and Abubakar as-Siddique. [10] DILG, Memorandum Circular No. 2019-121, https://www.dilg.gov.ph/PDF_File/issuances/memo_circulars/dilg-memocircular-2019729_2c2087a765.pdf [11] International Alert Philippines, 2019, op. cit., page 3. [12] N. D. Rosa, Disrupting conflict strings in subnational contexts: Experience from Muslim Mindanao, Philippines, Quezon City: International Alert Philippines, 2014, https://conflictalert.info/publication/disrupting-conflict-strings-sub-national-contexts-experience-muslim-mindanao-philippines/ [13] International Alert Philippines, Conflict Alert 2018: War and Identity, Quezon City: International Alert Philippines, 2018, page 30, https://conflictalert.info/publication/war-and-identity/
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International Alert’s Critical Events Monitoring System (CEMS) is an SMS- and high frequency radio-based reporting system that captures conflict incidents and tensions in communities. It is used by the Early Response Network (ERN), a group of men and women in various localities in the Bangsamoro, who share real-time information and work with local governments, key agencies, the security sector, and religious and traditional leaders in coordinating quick and context-specific responses to tensions, violent conflicts, disasters, and displacement, as they happen. Command posts are led by our local partners TASBIKKa, Inc., ERN Lanao del Sur, MARADECA, Inc., and Lupah Sug Bangsamoro Women Association, Inc.